In the recent French parliamentary elections, the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, emerged as the frontrunner in the first round of voting. President Emmanuel Macron’s party, Ensemble, suffered a significant setback, finishing in third place. These results have significant implications for the political landscape in France.
1. Far-right National Rally leads the first round: The RN secured 33.15% of the vote, positioning them closer to power than ever before.
2. Macron’s party slumps to third place: President Macron’s Ensemble alliance received only 20.76% of the vote, a disappointing result for the ruling party.
3. Potential hung parliament: While the RN is on track to win the most seats in the National Assembly, they may fall short of an absolute majority, suggesting the possibility of a hung parliament and increased political uncertainty.
4. Projections for the second round: After the second round of voting, the RN is projected to win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat lower house, a significant increase from their previous count of 88 seats. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition is projected to secure between 125 and 165 seats, while Ensemble is expected to have between 70 and 100 seats.
5. Potential political partnerships: If the RN falls short of an absolute majority, Macron may have to form a technocratic government or seek a prime minister from an opposition party, leading to an awkward partnership.
6. Anti-far right protests: Following the announcement of the results, anti-far right protests broke out in Paris and Lyon, with thousands of people gathering to express their opposition.
Analysis and Implications:
1. Cohabitation and political bargaining: With a three-way run-off and the possibility of a hung parliament, centrist and left-wing parties will engage in political bargaining to prevent the far-right RN from winning a majority. This could lead to a week of negotiations and potential alliances to block the RN’s rise to power.
2. Financial and constitutional challenges: A far-right government could pose financial and constitutional challenges for France. The RN has made lavish spending pledges that could increase France’s deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis. Additionally, disagreements on foreign and domestic policies could create constitutional conflicts.
